As you probably heard, John Kerry chose John Edwards as his running mate today. Many say that the VP Candidate does not affect the outcome. I disagree. I strongly believe that if Al Gore had chosen Edwards instead of Joe Lieberman in 2000, we wouldn't be in this mess right now.
The contrast with Dick Cheney will be strikingly in the Democrat's favor (and I'm not just talking about physical appearance, though that too.) It will be a priviledged, corrupt insider against the self made boy next door.
Prior to now, there were 3 states of particularly large importance: Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Whoever won 2 of those 3 would most likely be the winner. Now, however, there is one more state with 15+ electoral votes that is in play: North Carolina. That state was in Bush's column prior to today. Now it's up for grabs. What this means is that BUSH NOW HAS TO WIN 3 OUT OF THOSE 4. (He won 3 of them in 2000 and just barely covered). This is quite different than having to win 2 out of 3. Kerry, on the other hand, only has to win 2 out of those 4 to win. That's right, if the two candidates split those 4 states, Kerry most likely wins.
Now, I know the other 46 states will factor into the electoral college vote as well. But the other 46 fall into one of two categories. They are either not close (like massachusetts and new york for kerry or texas and utah for bush). Or, if they are close, they fall into the other category: they carry significantly less electoral votes than those four states. For example, New Hampshire appears to be in play. But New Hampshire is only worth four electoral votes. Same thing with West Virginia (5 electoral votes).
With Florida worth 27 EV's, North Carolina worth 15, Ohio 20 and Pennsylvania 21, and all of them now in play, the advantage appears to be with Kerry now.
(the fact that we have to do this type of analysis rather than the simple popular vote was made quite clear after that so called "election" in 2000. what it says about america is open to discussion, I suppose)