Hello Everyone,
While I share the belief on the benefits of replacing internal combustion engines,
and the benefits of ending our reliance on imported oil,
and applaud the efforts of friends and others who promote local agriculture,
. . . .the more I read, the more clear it is that there really is no agreement in the scientific community on the imminence of "Peak Oil"
While the scientific community is nearly unanimous about the carbon cycle and the man made impacts on global warming,
the scientific jury is still hung on when,
IF EVER,
we will reach peak oil.
The following interesting quote comes from this url
http://eslectures.stanford.edu/endofoil/docs/OilDepletionMyth.pdf
"What percent of hybrid (e.g., Prius at 48 mpg) cars in the model year 2000 light vehicle fleet would have displaced ½ of Persian Gulf oil imports?
14%
(Lovins, 2003)"
Can anyone predict what percent of the world fleet will be hybrid by 2020 ?
But even more importantly, as pointed out at this site, the statistical methods and inferences used to predict the amount of unknown oil resources, are considered by some scientists to be
very fraught with problems. The website does a much better job than I can of demonstrating this.
(Note that the website is a power point presentation of a lecture at Stanford.)
Food for thought or oil on the fire,
respectfully,
Rolf
(Who would consider being on the Peak Oil Committee, if I didn't have a baby and 29 other projects. This post represents about as much energy as I have to contribute to this project. I guess I reached Peak Energy this summer. Baby Morgen consumes most of what I have.)