Goldman Sachs predicted oil prices at $200 a barrel in 6 to 24 months. According to oil pundits, this would mean $7.50 per gallon gas prices. People are worrying that it will wreak havoc on existing systems, and many industries will have to work fast if they will be around to compete in the future. Auto manufacturers who cannot make fuel efficient vehicles could perish. Airlines, already teetering, could cease to operate. Tourism could seriously drop off.
If it comes to pass, can Brattleboro weather this storm?
Here are some observations about oil-consuming cars, planes and trucks, and how they serve the region.
Cars
Much depends on our ability to use something other than oil to propel our own vehicles. If this is done quickly and at a cost that most everyone can afford, high oil prices won't have much of an effect at all. This is worrisome, however, as the track record of Detroit to produce efficient vehicles is abysmal, and some of the most efficient vehicles are shipped and trucked to car dealers from overseas, thereby dependent on oil again.
People are also hurting financially and may not be able to afford to buy a new vehicle, even if they really wanted one. Poor people will be disproportionally burdened by this - unable to buy something efficient to save money, they will pay more for their older vehicle to fill up. This will be especially true if oil-powered cars are worthless and cannot be resold.
This would likely lead to an increase in the need for local public transportation. We do have a bus system in place that has expanded recently. Near-term effort should be made to make sure our busses require little or no gasoline later on.
It will lead to more biking and walking for some people. We may want to expand our sidewalks and reduce our paved roads.
If we are unable to access or afford non-gas-powered vehicles, another choice is to look to the past - horse-power. Will we encourage someone to saddle up and ride into town?
(Someone, too, will be able to make a living finding uses for undriveable cars - maybe as home theater seats.)
Airplanes
It may be a blessing that we do not have an airport. If we did, we would have part of our economy tied up in the success of airlines. Major cities have all sorts of businesses tied to the expectation that passengers will come via airplanes. Conventions, for one, depend on inexpensive destinations and travel. Taxis, too. We don't have to worry about that much here, but it will touch us, and impact our ability to get to other places.
(We almost had an airport. People were talking about one for Putney Road back in Lindbergh's day, but there was a fatal airplane crash here early on that put a damper on enthusiasm for air transport for the town. Read about it in the With Interest booklets in the Brain Trust.)
We do rely on tourism, though, and that could be a problem. For people to attend the Marlboro Music Festival, or Strolling of the Heifers, they have to drive here, and be able to afford that drive. What would this region look like if few people came to visit? How would it change the local economy? Main Street businesses are already feeling a pinch from the lackluster national economic situation and dropping dollar.
Will stores that cater to local needs, and provide products that can be easily obtained in our region at a relatively low cost replace those that cater to travelers?
Trucks
We also rely on transportation of goods - especially food - by truck. While we do have local farms, it is doubtful that they alone could feed everyone here. Perhaps at a much lower level of subsistence for each of us, but it still won't be enough. Big trucks are already slowing down on the highways to conserve fuel. What happens when it becomes too costly to run at all. Hybrid cars are cute, but a solar powered 18-wheeler is almost science fiction at this point. Will we greet a monthly delivery of goods like our ancestors greeted the arrival of a stagecoach or train?
Each of us will need to have gardens, put food up, store it for the winter, and have a way to trade it if trucks stop delivering food. We'd also have trouble getting things like TV's, as there are no manufacturers of them (or many other products we are used to) left in the U.S., let alone the region. We will need far more people able to make things that are useful out of resources nearby.
Other Little Things
Lots of other things require oil, and could become prohibitively costly to operate or obtain. Lawnmowers, snowblowers, chainsaws, gas grills, motor boats, generators are just a few. What do we do with the old ones and what will we do instead?
What happens when you can't afford to get to work?
Obviously, all of this is a problem as much as an opportunity. Someone right here in southern Vermont might create the new devices to replace the old ones, or find ways to re-use. We already have forward-looking businesses getting started in this direction, and new ideas are brought forward every day. It could be a whole new wonderful world.
It could also be like the Depression, catching us unprepared, and forcing us through a painful period of adaptation to the changing world around us. People could go hungry, go broke, get sick, or lose everything.
I'm interested in your predictions. What happens if gas is $7.50/gal. a year from now? What if it is $15/gal. a year or two after? Assume for the sake of this argument that oil prices will rise, and rapidly.