A few weeks ago, the government put out a new climate change report rigorously juried and written in layman's language with colorful charts and graphs detailing the latest research and predictions. We each spent an hour or more going through it, thought about writing a story, and then dropped it, assuming most people wouldn't be interested. After all, it recapped a lot of information that has been out for a while New England summers would be cooler and wetter while the Southwest would be hotter and drier, cool climate trees would move north, ski industry would die, and the like.
Then on the Fourth of July, we went to visit relatives in the Lakes District of New Hampshire. We were standing outside in the chilly drizzle with Lise's Filipino uncle when he casually remarked that the weather was messed up. He's not usually too concerned about these things, so we were a bit surprised. He said that Europe is having weird weather patterns again this year, and that in the Phillipines where he had been living, the normal summer weather had failed to materialize and they too had had a cool, wet summer. His impression regarding the weather in the Phillipines was this never happens.
So when we got home Sunday night, we decided to kill some time watching the Weather Channel online. Watching the Weather Channel gives you all the weather instead of just your region. Having not seen the Weather Channel in years, we were both struck by how dire the weather has been around the country. Every other story was about how abnormally awful it has been. "I've lived here 30 years and I've never seen...." was a common refrain.
What's scary about the weird and in many cases extreme weather happening around the country and the world is that the climate change report completely supports this scenario. Cool, wet summers in the Northeast check. More extreme downpours check. Extreme dry conditions in the Southwest check. Heat waves in Europe check. It's enough to make a person believe in climate change.
What follows is a rundown of three places we looked for climate information the government report, the Weather Channel, and a really impressive new atlas of the Connecticut River Valley that provides a great picture of our region and what we stand to lose in the coming years. Dig in....
I. The Weather Channel
Our first stop was the Weather Channel. It was both illuminating and depressing.
They didn't mince words, and put the blame squarely on global warming.
Story after story showed examples. The heat wave in Texas causing home foundations to crack. All the trees in Houston dying. Galveston making plans to be underwater in the coming years. Heat wave in Europe two years in a row. Highways in Wisconsin buckling due to heat. Cold and rainy conditions in New England for the second year in a row.
The meteorologists said it again and again. It's the changing climate. They say global warming is real, is observable, and is the cause of unusual weather patterns across the globe.
Tune in or watch online for a few hours sometime and see what you think.
II. The Latest Climate Change Report from Scientists
The next stop was the latest report from the scientific community, so we downloaded a copy of "Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States," from the Cambridge University Press, 2009. It is a plain-language report for everyone to read that summarizes the science of climate change and its impacts, now and in the future.
It breaks down the science and impacts a few ways. They look at climate change by sector - water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, human health, and society - then look at climate change impacts by region. It ends up with an agenda for "climate impacts science," and some concluding thoughts.
The first stop as a reader was the introduction to see who wrote it. Editors came from the NOAA National Climatic Data Center and the Marine Biological Laboratory. The report had 28 expert authors coming from the U.S. Geologic Survey, NASA, Department of Transportation, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and numerous colleges and universities. Science folks from Harvard, MIT, Texas A&M, and others reviewed it. There is a full reference section listing sources.
It's public domain, so we'll quote from it below and use a picture or two for illustration.
A. Overall, Some Key Findings Of The Report
In simple terms, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbon, ozone and water vapor emissions are on the rise. Oceans are becoming more acidic. Temperatures are rising, and so are sea levels.
Big changes are expected. "Under all scenarios considered in the report, relatively large and sustained changes in many aspects of climate are projected by the middle of this century, with even larger changes by the end of this century, especially under higher emissions scenarios."
We may or may not be able to deal with it. "Humans have adapted to changing climatic conditions in the past, but in the future, adaptations will be particularly challenging because society wont be adapting to a new steady state but rather to a rapidly moving target. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty."
Here are the 10 key global findings presented in the report:
1. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced.
2. Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow.
3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase.
4. Climate change will stress water resources.
5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged.
6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge.
7. Risks to human health will increase.
8. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses.
9. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems.
10. Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today.
B. How Do We Know It Is Happening In The Northeast?
The report lists observable and quantifiable changes that have been documented in New England.
More frequent days with temperatures above 90°F
A longer growing season
Increased heavy precipitation
Less winter precipitation falling as snow and more as rain
Reduced snowpack
Earlier breakup of winter ice on lakes and rivers
Earlier spring snowmelt resulting in earlier peak river flows
Rising sea surface temperatures and sea level
C. What Do They Predict For The Northeast In The Future?
More rain. "One of the clearest precipitation trends in the United States is the increasing frequency and intensity of heavy downpours."
Really. More rain. "Higher latitudes are projected to receive more precipitation. The widespread trend toward more heavy downpours is expected to continue, with precipitation becoming less frequent but more intense. More precipitation is expected to fall as rain rather than snow. ... Model projections of future precipitation generally indicate that northern areas will become wetter."
It might make for some big snowstorms in the short term, but eventually it will be mostly rain. "In winter and spring, northern areas are expected to receive significantly more precipitation than they do now, because the interaction of warm and moist air coming from the south with colder air from the north is projected to occur farther north than it did on average in the last century."
The seasons will be shifting and temperatures rising. "Hot summer conditions would arrive three weeks earlier and last three weeks longer into the fall,""Heat waves, which are currently rare in the region, are projected to become much more commonplace in a warmer future, with major implications for human health," and "the number of days that fail to meet federal air quality standards is projected to increase with rising temperatures."
This will change what can be grown around here: "Large portions of the Northeast are likely to become unsuitable for growing popular varieties of apples, blueberries, and cranberries under a higher emissions scenario."
Maple lovers take note: "Climate conditions suitable for maple/beech/birch forests are projected to shift dramatically northward, eventually leaving only a small portion of the Northeast with a maple sugar business."
It will also cause milk production to decline. "Heat stress in dairy cows depresses both milk production and birth rates for periods of weeks to months By late this century, all but the northern parts of Maine, New Hampshire, New York, and Vermont are projected to suffer declines in July milk production under the higher emissions scenario."
Most of our ski resorts will close." Warmer winters will shorten the average ski and snowboard seasons, increase artificial snowmaking requirements, and drive up operating costs. The length of the winter snow season would be cut in half across northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, and reduced to a week or two in southern parts of the region."
There won't be enough snow for snowmobiles to get around. "Most of the region is likely to have a marginal or non-existent snowmobile season by mid-century."
D. Yeah, But That'll Be After I'm Long Gone...
"Not all changes in the climate are gradual. The long record of climate found in ice cores, tree rings, and other natural records show that Earths climate patterns have undergone rapid shifts from one stable state to another within as short a period as a decade. The occurrence of abrupt changes in climate becomes increasingly likely as the human disturbance of the climate system grows."
E. Yeah, But It Was Really Warm/Cold Long Ago...
"While various parts of the world have had particularly hot or cold periods earlier in the historical record, these periods have not been global in scale, whereas the warming of recent decades has been global in scale hence the term global warming."
F. Yeah, But This Summer Is Cold...
"It is also important to recognize that at both the global and national scales, year-to-year fluctuations in natural weather and climate patterns can produce a period that does not follow the long-term trend. Thus, each year will not necessarily be warmer than every year before it, though the warming trend continues."
"By the end of the century, the average U.S. temperature is projected to increase by approximately 7 to 11°F under the higher emissions scenario and by approximately 4 to 6.5°F under the lower emissions scenario."
G. Where Can I Get A Free Copy?
The full report, with lots of charts and graphs worth exploring, can be found online at www.globalchange.gov/usimpacts
III. Where The Great River Rises
The final bit of evidence arrived by mail the other day. It was a copy of "Where the Great River Rises - An Atlas of the Connecticut River Watershed in Vermont and New Hampshire," a beautiful new book put out by the Connecticut River Joint Commission. We got a copy in exchange for providing them with some printable versions of pictures in the Brain Trust.
The book covers everything about the watershed area, from geology and soil composition, to flora and fauna, history, transportation, salmon counting, energy and more. It has information about climate change in the Connecticut River Watershed, too.
The book mentions the introduction of new pests, longer growing seasons, changes in frost dates, longer periods of stress for riparian and aquatic plants and wildlife as things to come. It says we may see more extreme weather and more intense storms.
Wood products, outdoor recreation, farming, and tourism will see significant effects and we can look for more ticks and new pests in the garden, new birds at feeders, and less snow in winter. According to the book, snowfall has decreased by about 10% since 1966, and the days with snow on the ground has decreased by about 16 days between 1970 and 2000.
IV. Final Thoughts
So there is the summary of what's going on, according to just about everyone from TV weatherpeople to scientists and scholars. There were no footnotes expressing doubts. It was unanimous and it was loud, and you can read and watch for yourself to verify the information we found.
What to do with the information, of course, is up to you.
Lise helped with this report.