While We Still Have One

Let’s say Trump is elected and his first meeting with Kim Jong-un goes terribly wrong. The belligerence on both sides reach unprecedented levels. The kid, feeling threatened, decides to lob an ICBM over the polar icecap towards Manhattan, but misses. Instead, it accidentally explodes over downtown Brattleboro during the school year just after lunch recess. In March 2013, the boastful “Supreme Leader” threatened the United States with a preemptive nuclear attack. He is known to have tested a 10 kiloton nuclear weapon to “reliably defend the sovereignty and the dignity of the nation.”

If you’re a student anywhere within the full five-mile radius of a 10 kiloton air burst, you probably won’t be needing your school books anymore.

The effects of an overhead detonation from a half mile high are divided into four ranges.

The smallest but deadliest is the fireball radius about a half mile wide. The ground zero destructive force of the fireball is largely inescapable with a probable mortality rate of 100%.

The second range is the mile-wide radiation radius. Depending on the dose of rads biological injury without medical treatment will result in up to a 90% mortality rate. Dying from the radiation takes between several hours and several weeks.

The third range is the air blast radius. The overpressure will collapse most buildings with universal injuries and widespread fatalities.

The fourth range is the thermal radiation radius. With a 100% probability of injuries, third degree burns extend deep through the layers of skin. Because the burns destroy the nerves there is no pain, but disfigurement from scarring and amputation may result for those who survive.

The overall expected casualties throughout the metro Brattleboro area are estimated at 7,940 with nearly 3,810 fatalities and 4,130 injuries.

The fallout effects are not part of this model scenario but dispersion of dangerous and deadly radiation is a known feature of the casualty patterns.

Modeling casualties of a single 10 kiloton warhead in a nuclear attack using internet sites is not meant to be scientifically accurate. Certainly, as one nuke map indicates, the “numbers should be seen as evocative, not definitive.”

Nevertheless, living in a trigger-happy world suggests that we should live our future now…while we still have one.

Comments | 6

  • and...

    And the reason we know all this – we dropped ’em on other people.

  • Wow!

    That’s a cheerful message.

    • It was rather

      It was rather fun, I must say.

    • Stumbled

      When I stumbled on what a nuclear blast would be like over Brattleboro, I thought there simply was no better way to bring it closer to home. Either these, you, all of us humans understand that any one of us, not just the “Supreme Leader” of North Korea, are all, I repeat, all, are capable of carrying out the unspeakable horrors that we accuse the poor young man who has had leadership thrust upon him, then we will never learn the true meaning of “why can’t we all just get along.”

  • Nuclear Cowboys

    (Reuters) North Korea fired three ballistic missiles early on Tuesday which flew between 300 and 360 miles into the sea off its east coast, South Korea’s military said, the latest in a series of provocative moves by the isolated country.

    The launches came days after South Korea and the United States announced a final decision to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) anti-missile system in the South to counter threats from the North, which had prompted Pyongyang to threaten a “physical response.”

    North Korea conducted its fourth test of a nuclear device in January, and activity at its nuclear test site has increased recently, according to media reports in South Korea and Japan citing government officials, as well as a report by Washington-based North Korea monitoring project 38 North.

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