Opinion

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ is the current home of 538, Nate Silver’s project to provide statistical insight into politics and specifically the electoral college.

On Sunday the forecast was 52% Trump, the first forecast I’ve seen favoring him.  Just now, 50-50, hence this post.

538 started forecasting in 2008 and has been rather good.  In 2008 Obama was 90% late and in the last few days became 99%; nonetheless they did not see Indiana turning blue.  In the 2016 election Trump was given 11-16% until the last few days when it screamed up to 24%–when working with chess engines the trending can be more important than the evaluation, and I think that’s what happened then.

In the light of Trump’s most recent campaign shenanigans, seemingly more outré each day- foul language, falling asleep, working the fryer, false accusations, disquisitions on phallus size, dance performance- this on top of his long string of unusual practices- mocking disabled people, belittling war victims, sexual assaults, absconding with secret documents, etc…it occurs to me this display clearly derives from the archetype of the Trickster.

The Trickster appears in various guises in almost all cultures throughout history. Shape shifting, boundary busting, upsetting the status quo by way theft, subversion, unorthodox behavior, inexplicable alliances, and undermining established morality. There’s always an element of twisted humor; Bugs Bunny, the Joker, Brer Rabbit, Loki, the incarnations are varied and always idiosyncratic, the energy irrepressible and unpredictable.

It has been a year of continuous warfare in the Middle East. The spark that started the conflagration happened when Hamas killed 1200 Jews in a bold and ruthless attack. Many of the hostages they took a year ago have either died or not been heard from and families of the hostages are living in a constant state of frustration.

Israel responded to the attack predictably and over 41,000 Palestinians have been killed and much of Gaza has been destroyed. The Israeli bombing of Gaza continues and over 1.9 million people (90% of the population) have been displaced from homes that no longer exist. Famine and disease are daily reminders of just how hopeless the situation is for Palestinians.

Most of the leaders of the civilized world have been calling for a cease fire in Gaza but their pleas and diplomatic efforts are falling on deaf ears.

It has been impossible to craft a deal acceptable to Hamas and the Netanyahu government.

The selectboard of a small town is one of the most unique aspects of democracy. There are many similarities between a selectboard member and a state representative or senator as well as a federal politician, but I think the level of accountability on the most local of levels is unique.

I have only been in the selectboard position for six months and I am trying to understand what accountability means. We have meetings where the people who live in our community can come and face us directly and question and criticize us. They have access to us by phone, e-mail and perhaps, most importantly, on the street.

We do not travel somewhere to do our political business and we engage in our community on a daily basis. People learn to recognize us and feel comfortable engaging in conversation whenever they see us. This is about as pure as democracy gets.

Dear Brattleboro Voter,

You will be receiving an absentee ballot in the mail for the November 5, 2024, General Election. The State of Vermont will be mailing ballots during the week of September 23. The local Justice of the Peace ballot will be on the reverse side. 

If you have not received your ballot by October 7, please contact our office at 802-251-8157 or townclerk@brattleboro.gov. Otherwise, please wait for your ballot to arrive.