2024 Election Forecast Updates

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/ is the current home of 538, Nate Silver’s project to provide statistical insight into politics and specifically the electoral college.

On Sunday the forecast was 52% Trump, the first forecast I’ve seen favoring him.  Just now, 50-50, hence this post.

538 started forecasting in 2008 and has been rather good.  In 2008 Obama was 90% late and in the last few days became 99%; nonetheless they did not see Indiana turning blue.  In the 2016 election Trump was given 11-16% until the last few days when it screamed up to 24%–when working with chess engines the trending can be more important than the evaluation, and I think that’s what happened then.

I bookmarked the link and check in from time to time.  I saw Harris’ convention bounce her to the mid-60s and then it was a long steady trend downwards until Sunday’s Trump 52.

Harris probably lost AZ & GA over the past few weeks.

Slight edge for Trump in NC, Harris in MI WI NV.

PA total tossup and will be contested to the last breath.

Comments | 32

  • Great idea

    Thanks! It is looking like a neck and neck nail biter hairsplitter of an election if polls are to be believed. All within a margin of error. (And it will come down to some undecided person in North Carolina, so there’s a margin of Erika, too.)

    (One note… Nate Silver is no longer there. He got it started but left a year or so ago. I think ABC News (Disney) owns them now.)

  • I submitted the post mid-afternoon Tuesday the 22nd

    so my “just now” referred to that moment, not the time given for the posting.

  • Trump 51 Harris 49

    Trump’s edge in NC increased sharply.

  • How to Get Thru This Election?

    Yesterday I had an anxiety attack- the first I’ve had in years. My nerves are on edge. I’m discussing with a friend how to blow off steam when getting drunk, dancing, hard physical exertion, and fist fights are no longer options. It’s becoming clearer to me why old people are cantankerous. I’m an old people now, and getting crankier by the day.

  • Trump 50.7 Harris 48.9

    Trump AZ 62 GA 61 NC 57
    Harris WI 55 MI 54
    PA Trump 51
    NV Harris 51

    Electoral votes:
    AZ 11 GA 16 NC 16 WI 10 MI 15 PA 19 NV 6

    Trump’s clear edge in AZ & GA diminished from the mid-high 60s.
    NV should be considered as much a tossup as PA.
    Moreover NV might be called last if they actually call the eastern swing states.

  • Quantifiably Slippery

    FWIW-IMHO- I’m not a fan of poll mania. It ratchets tension in an already overhyped arena, and is clearly manipulable.

    Not only has polling been a hit or miss proposition, like teaching to the test for education, or betting odds infusing professional sports…obsessing on data trends hasn’t added to enjoyment or improvement of the experience.

    • Trump 52.8 Harris 46.8

      Trump AZ 64 GA 63 NC 60
      Harris WI 52 MI 54
      PA Trump 53
      NV Trump 51

      Electoral votes:
      AZ 11 GA 16 NC 16 WI 10 MI 15 PA 19 NV 6
      The working assumption is that Harris has 226 and Trump 219. So of the 93 in the swing states, Harris needs 44 and Trump 51.

  • 33.8 million ballots cast already

    According to CNN. The pandemic changed the voting rules and the public has responded.
    To put ~34 in perspective, 77 for Biden and 70 for Trump in 2020.

  • Trump 53 Harris 46.7

    Trump AZ 65 GA 63 NC 61
    Harris WI 52 MI 53
    PA Trump 52
    NV Trump 52

    • SportsBook election odds

      Donald Trump Sr. -185
      Kamala Harris +160
      JD Vance +20000
      Michelle Obama +40000
      Hillary Clinton +50000
      Nikki Haley +50000
      Robert F. Kennedy Jr. +50000
      Tim Walz +50000

      If you haven’t seen +/- odds, known as American Odds, it’s can be a bit confusing.
      In this case, betting on Trump to win, you would have to risk 185 to win 100.
      Betting on Harris, risking 100 would win 160.
      For the rest of the field, betting 100 bucks would win you the exact amount after the +.

      So the gambling public considers a Trump outcome considerably more likely than 538.

  • Trump 54.5 Harris 45.2

    Trump AZ 66 GA 63 NC 62
    Harris WI 51 MI 52
    PA Trump 54
    NV Trump 53

  • Trump 53.8 Harris 45.9

    Trump AZ 65 GA 62 NC 61
    Harris WI 51 MI 53
    PA Trump 53
    NV Trump 52

    The sportsbook odds moved to Trump =200 Harris +170.

  • 40.7 million ballots cast thus far

    According to CNN, which also claimed the early voting was lower than this time in 2020.

  • Trump 53.6 Harris 46.1

    Trump AZ 65 GA 63 NC 62
    Harris WI 51 MI 54
    PA Trump 53
    NV Trump 52

  • A counterpoint to polling...

    Here’s an article about where consensus might be wrong about polls. The author is an economist who closely watches markets. I give this for people who don’t like polls. : )

    https://ritholtz.com/2024/10/where-might-consensus-be-wrong/

    I like to dislike polling but also follow it as if it were a horoscope in the newspaper. So much depends on who was asked, when they were asked, what they were asked, how the question was phrased, if choices were provided or if questions were open-ended… and if the poll is being done with intentional bias or an intent to mislead. It’s easy to lie with statistics. I have problems with most poll questions I see, but like a car accident, it is very hard not to look at results as I go by.

    • 538 Forecasting is not polling

      The numbers I provide are not poll percentages but forecasts of probability of taking the Electoral College or the state.

      Yes polling is the primary underpinning but the forecast considers a variety of polls and further how they tend to skew. It’s a far more sophisticated overview of the numbers available and provides the best synthesis of the electoral college math involved.

      Further with the substantial number of early voters the samplings will inevitably include more “dids” than “wills”.

      The link I provided also provides a parallel to the election coverage next Tuesday night. If you keep refreshing it you get a great sense of how things are breaking.

  • 50.5 million early votes cast

    per NBC News.

  • Trump 51.6 Harris 48.1

    Trump AZ 66 GA 63 NC 60
    Harris WI 54 MI 57
    PA Trump 52
    NV Harris 51

  • Trump 51.3 Harris 48.4

    Trump AZ 65 GA 63 NC 60
    Harris WI 56 MI 59
    PA Trump 52
    NV Harris 51

  • Trump 51.4 Harris 48.4

    Trump AZ 66 GA 63 NC 61
    Harris WI 57 MI 59
    PA Trump 52.1
    NV Harris 50.1

    The “no winner” scenario dropped to 0.2% — one in five hundred simulations came out that way — which is the lowest I’ve seen, generally it’s been

  • Trump 50.4 Harris 49.4

    Trump AZ 65 GA 62 NC 60
    Harris WI 57 MI 60
    PA Trump 50.4
    NV Trump 50.4

    Bovada lists Trump -165 Harris +135

    Forbes reported 66 million votes cast as of yesterday.

    • Any armchair guesses?

      Anyone willing (based on all of this and everything else) to make a pre-election day prediction?*

      According to these numbers, Trump has been trending downward rather steadily since Oct 27. and Harris has been trending upward since then.

      Somewhat lost in the discussion are House and Senate races. Will the president and Congress be at odds with one another or in sync and working as a team?

      (*As of this moment, I predict Harris gets the popular vote and there is an electoral tie, sending it to the House.)

      • since you asked

        The clearest route for Harris is WI MI PA.
        PA took the rest of the week to provide a count, even with early voting that should be expected again.
        This seems to be the critical state to carry the Electoral College.

        The real concerning trend is how Harris went from 64 post-convention to under 50 two weeks before the polls closed, as there’s no singular event to tack it to.

        Yes Trump’s numbers slipped after the MSG rally but today’s numbers show that was transient.

        More notable is today’s serious shift in the betting odds.

        Way to close to call, but I’ll try again after another two days of reporting the numbers and then decide if I’m tracking them through the Election Day.

      • New guess

        My latest guess is a clear Harris win. I’m now guessing that less than scrupulous people have been billing the GOP for phony polling “enhanced by AI” telling them what they want to hear. Maybe.

        Guessing just for fun. I don’t know anything. : )

  • Trump 53.3 Harris 46.5

    Trump AZ 68 GA 64 NC 63
    Harris WI 56 MI 58
    PA Trump 52.8
    NV Trump 53.7

    Bovada now lists Trump -130 Harris +110, significant movement in one day.

  • Trump 53 Harris 46.7

    Trump AZ 70 GA 63 NC 62
    Harris WI 56 MI 57
    PA Trump 53.3
    NV Trump 52.8

    Trump -145 Harris +125

    75 million votes cast.

  • Trump 51.8 Harris 48

    PA 52
    NV 51.6

    Trump -150 Harris +130

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